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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Milan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Milan beat Bologna 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.30 xG and Bologna 0.90 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AC Milan beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.11 / defence 0.95 against Bologna attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 46% | Draw 29% | Bologna 25%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 63%, Bologna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Bologna's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.81 PPG, Bologna 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Milan win broke the near-deadlock. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights