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Poisson model rates Waterford at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 10 July 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Waterford (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Waterford at Regional Sports Centre this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Waterford against 1.50 for St Patrick's Athl.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 9 meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Waterford's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 1–4 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

It is worth noting that St Patrick's Athl. have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Stats

Across 23 matches this season, Waterford have gone 4W 8D 11L. They average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 5-0 (A). Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 23 games (26%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 1 missed from 7 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game.

St Patrick's Athl.'s full-season record stands at 12W 5D 6L from 23 games. Their scoring output is 1.7 per match with 0.8 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (6 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 23 games (35%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game.

St Patrick's Athl. have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 0.80 per game versus 2.00 for the hosts. St Patrick's Athl. lead on clean sheets this season (9 vs 2). Penalty activity: Waterford 6/7 vs St Patrick's Athl. 2/2 this season.

Trading & In-Play

Waterford — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 59% versus St Patrick's Athl. 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | St Patrick's Athl. 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.36 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.020 / defence 1.078 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.787 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.281. Data: 59 Waterford games / 59 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Waterford 42% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waterford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 40%.

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