📋

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 July 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dundalk away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.40 (Dundalk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for St Patrick's Athl., 3 for Dundalk and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Dundalk winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Season Statistics

St Patrick's Athl.'s full-season record stands at 12W 6D 6L from 24 games. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 0.8 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (6 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 24 games (33%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game.

The visitors have accumulated 9W 8D 7L from their 24 Premier Division appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 1.5 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 24 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game, 0.25 reds per game.

St Patrick's Athl. have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 0.80 per game against Dundalk's 1.50. St Patrick's Athl. lead on clean sheets this season (9 vs 5). Dundalk are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. St Patrick's Athl. score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 12%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: St Patrick's Athl. 3/3 vs Dundalk 2/2 this season.

Standings Snapshot

St Patrick's Athl. hold the table advantage, sitting 3rd with 42 points — 1 position and 7 points clear of Dundalk in 4th.

At home this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 9W 1D 2L. Dundalk have gone 3W 6D 3L on their travels. St Patrick's Athl.: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification).

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Dundalk trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 38% versus Dundalk 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Dundalk 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.06 xG and Dundalk 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.240 / defence 0.604 | Dundalk attack 0.942 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.604 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 24 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 67% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 11%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Dundalk 9.09. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Dundalk 70%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights