Waterford 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Waterford (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waterford at Regional Sports Centre this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Waterford are significantly better at Regional Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. St Patrick's Athl. are 2.00 PPG clear of Waterford in recent Premier Division fixtures (2.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Waterford have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, St Patrick's Athl. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waterford lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waterford — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 51% versus St Patrick's Athl. 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 51% | St Patrick's Athl. 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.06 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.844 / defence 1.220 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.005 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.023. Data: 42 Waterford games / 42 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Waterford 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Waterford 1.06 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.844 / def 1.220 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.005 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.25
St Patrick's Athl. xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Waterford 1 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (2 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 1W.
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waterford's attack at 0.84x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.00x) against Waterford's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.51
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.31
1.25
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Waterford and 1.25 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waterford's recent record stands at 14W 6D 17L from 37 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 12L across 37 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Waterford against 1.59 for St Patrick's Athl.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Waterford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.38 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 17W 8D 12L in their last 37 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Waterford's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.47 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Waterford or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Waterford
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waterford see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 63%, St Patrick's Athl. 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Waterford) and 53% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 32%; Waterford have failed to score in 32% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Waterford's games and 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Waterford's recent games and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Waterford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Waterford 1-2 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.06 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, St Patrick's Athl. 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.30 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.