Waterford 1-3 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waterford face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Shamrock Rovers at Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waterford have posted 4W 2D 4L at Regional Sports Centre — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Waterford are significantly better at Regional Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Waterford have won 1, Shamrock Rovers 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 51% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 51% | Shamrock Rovers 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.98 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.798 / defence 1.212 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.009 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.146. Waterford's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Waterford games / 51 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 26% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 47%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Shamrock Rovers 2.13. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 60% | Shamrock Rovers 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 26% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Waterford 0.98 / Shamrock Rovers 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.798 / def 1.212 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.009 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Shamrock Rovers xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Waterford 1 - 3 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 26% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Waterford and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (4 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 3W.
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in?
Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waterford's attack rating (0.80) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
26%
3.81
27%
3.70
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.38
1.40
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Waterford and 1.40 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 6D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Shamrock Rovers sit at 1.73 PPG from 37 outings (18W 10D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Waterford's home form reads 7W 4D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Shamrock Rovers have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.39 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Waterford or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Waterford's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
1
Draws
8
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Waterford 0-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 61%, Shamrock Rovers 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Waterford) and 44% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 33%; Waterford have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Waterford's games and 56% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-3 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.98 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 26% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 47%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Shamrock Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.