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Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Waterford 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Waterford 1-2 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.35 xG and Derry City 1.46 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.98 / defence 1.23 against Derry City attack 1.19 / defence 1.02, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 35% | Draw 25% | Derry City 40%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 55%, Derry City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Derry City's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waterford 1.19 PPG, Derry City 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights