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Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Derry City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waterford beat Derry City 2-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.87 xG and Derry City 1.64 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.71 / defence 1.40 against Derry City attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 19% | Draw 26% | Derry City 55%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Derry City's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waterford 1.30 PPG, Derry City 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights