Waterford 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 20 as Waterford welcome Bohemians to Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 June 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Regional Sports Centre this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Waterford are significantly better at Regional Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bohemians's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Waterford's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waterford register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bohemians in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Waterford, 1 for Bohemians and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Waterford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waterford trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 51% versus Bohemians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 51% | Bohemians 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.01 xG and Bohemians 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.934 / defence 1.345 | Bohemians attack 1.041 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.126. Data: 55 Waterford games / 55 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 24% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 50%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 2.00. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Waterford dominate the H2H record, yet Bohemians are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 60% | Bohemians 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jun 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 24% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Waterford 1.01 / Bohemians 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.934 / def 1.345 | Bohemians attack 1.041 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Bohemians xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Bohemians kick off?
Waterford vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 June 2025 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Waterford vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Bohemians part of?
Waterford vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 24% chance of winning, Bohemians a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waterford and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
Record (5 meetings): Waterford 3W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in?
Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
24%
4.12
25%
3.97
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.59
1.58
Bohemians xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
5%
19.90
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Waterford and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Waterford and 1.58 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Waterford have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 14W 6D 17L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 11W 12D 14L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.30 PPG, Bohemians on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waterford have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 6W 6D 6L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.16 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Bohemians away?
Waterford's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.39 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
2
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Bohemians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Waterford 3-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Bohemians?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 61%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Waterford) and 33% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Bohemians in 33%; Waterford have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Waterford's games and 50% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 33% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Bohemians tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Bohemians 2-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.01 xG and Bohemians 1.58 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.93 / defence 1.34 against Bohemians attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 24% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 50%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.