UCD 2-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this UCD vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 27 as UCD welcome Finn Harps to UCD Bowl. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
UCD — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for UCD, so this record blends games from this season and last.
UCD at UCD Bowl this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Finn Harps's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (UCD) versus 0.50 (Finn Harps). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for UCD, 0 for Finn Harps and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2022, ended 1–0 with UCD winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
UCD in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 42% versus Finn Harps 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 46% | Finn Harps 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.16 xG and Finn Harps 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.606 / defence 1.405 | Finn Harps attack 0.896 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.083. UCD's attack strength of 0.606 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.485 — this is suppressing UCD's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 UCD games / 61 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 31% | Draw 28% | Finn Harps 41%. Fair-value odds: UCD 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Finn Harps 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: UCD 50% | Finn Harps 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 31% | Draw 28% | Finn Harps 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG UCD 1.16 / Finn Harps 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.606 / def 1.405 | Finn Harps attack 0.896 / def 1.485 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Finn Harps xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Finn Harps kick off?
UCD vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 12 August 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Finn Harps?
UCD 2 - 1 Finn Harps.
Where is UCD vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Finn Harps part of?
UCD vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 31% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both UCD and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Finn Harps?
Record (2 meetings): UCD 1W | Draws 1 | Finn Harps 0W.
What form are UCD and Finn Harps in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Finn Harps (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
UCD's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
31%
3.20
28%
3.59
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
UCD xG
Total xG
2.52
1.36
Finn Harps xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are UCD and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for UCD and 1.36 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, UCD have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 3W 7D 16L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for UCD is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Finn Harps's form line: 4W 6D 16L from 26 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: UCD on 0.62 PPG, Finn Harps on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, UCD have posted 0.42 PPG from 12 outings (0W 5D 7L).
On the road, Finn Harps have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
UCD are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.04 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Blended
Finn Harps
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 3W 7D 16L in their last 26 games (0.62 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 4W 6D 16L in their last 26 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Finn Harps away?
Finn Harps's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.42 PPG; Finn Harps away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between UCD and Finn Harps runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: UCD have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
UCD's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
UCD
1
Draws
0
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Finn Harps?
From 4 meetings on record, UCD have won 3, Finn Harps have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-3 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Finn Harps?
UCD have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
UCD see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 42%, Finn Harps 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (UCD) and 83% (Finn Harps). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 58% of games; Finn Harps in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Finn Harps?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of UCD's recent matches and 50% of Finn Harps's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of UCD's matches and 83% of Finn Harps's.
Do UCD and Finn Harps tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as UCD defy the odds to beat Finn Harps 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD beat Finn Harps 2-1 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.16 xG and Finn Harps 1.36 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. UCD beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.61 / defence 1.41 against Finn Harps attack 0.90 / defence 1.49, drawn from 25/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 31% | Draw 28% | Finn Harps 41%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual UCD win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 46%, Finn Harps 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Finn Harps's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — UCD 0.62 PPG, Finn Harps 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the UCD win broke the near-deadlock. UCD (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.