UCD 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as UCD face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to UCD Bowl to take on UCD. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for UCD, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, UCD have posted 1W 2D 7L at UCD Bowl — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
St Patrick's Athl. have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against UCD's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2022, ended 1–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
It is worth noting that St Patrick's Athl. have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
UCD trading profile (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 44% versus St Patrick's Athl. 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 48% | St Patrick's Athl. 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.74 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.669 / defence 1.398 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.125 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.037. UCD's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 UCD games / 61 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 17% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 59%. Fair-value odds: UCD 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.69. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: UCD 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 17% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG UCD 0.74 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.669 / def 1.398 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.125 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.63
St Patrick's Athl. xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 August 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
UCD 1 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 17% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both UCD and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (3 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 3W.
What form are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. in?
UCD (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.67x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
17%
5.93
25%
4.08
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
UCD xG
Total xG
2.37
1.63
St Patrick's Athl. xG
5.93
17%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
3%
30.29
28%
3.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for UCD and 1.63 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
UCD's recent record stands at 4W 7D 16L from 27 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for UCD is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 8L across 27 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, UCD have managed 1W 4D 7L from 12 games — 0.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 4W 4D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
UCD are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.33 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 4W 7D 16L in their last 27 games (0.70 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 11W 8D 8L in their last 27 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.58 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have UCD or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2023, when St Patrick's Athl. won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
UCD's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
0
Draws
8
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did UCD and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2023, when UCD 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
UCD see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (UCD) and 42% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 42%; UCD have failed to score in 50% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of UCD's recent matches and 33% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of UCD's recent games and 42% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out UCD 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat UCD 1-2 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.74 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.63 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.67 / defence 1.40 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.12 / defence 0.86, drawn from 26/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 17% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 59%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 48%, St Patrick's Athl. 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.