UCD 1-5 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dundalk (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as UCD face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to UCD Bowl to face UCD in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
UCD have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at UCD Bowl, UCD have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Dundalk (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Dundalk hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2023, ended 1–4 with Dundalk winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dundalk have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
UCD — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 42% versus Dundalk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 54% | Dundalk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.80 xG and Dundalk 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.594 / defence 1.602 | Dundalk attack 1.028 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 0.965. UCD's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 UCD games / 71 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 18% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 55%. Fair-value odds: UCD 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: UCD 40% | Dundalk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 18% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG UCD 0.80 / Dundalk 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.594 / def 1.602 | Dundalk attack 1.028 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.419 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Dundalk xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Dundalk kick off?
UCD vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 November 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Dundalk?
UCD 1 - 5 Dundalk.
Where is UCD vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Dundalk part of?
UCD vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 18% chance of winning, Dundalk a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both UCD and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Dundalk?
Record (7 meetings): UCD 1W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 4W.
What form are UCD and Dundalk in?
UCD (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Dundalk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.59x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (1.03x) against UCD's defence (1.60x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
18%
5.61
27%
3.71
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
UCD xG
Total xG
2.39
1.59
Dundalk xG
5.61
18%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
4%
27.49
25%
4.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are UCD and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for UCD and 1.59 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
UCD's recent record stands at 9W 13D 49L from 71 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 19L across 71 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, UCD have managed 6W 7D 22L from 35 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 11W 9D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 0.66 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.46 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Dundalk in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 9W 13D 49L in their last 71 games (0.56 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 33W 19D 19L in their last 71 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.71 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.20 PPG.
Have UCD or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dundalk won 1-5 on 3 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
UCD
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Dundalk?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2023, when UCD 1-5 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 43%, Dundalk 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (UCD) and 37% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 31%; UCD have failed to score in 51% of games; Dundalk in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of UCD's recent matches and 40% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of UCD's recent games and 37% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Dundalk tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 1-5 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat UCD 1-5 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.80 xG and Dundalk 1.59 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 1.59 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.59 / defence 1.60 against Dundalk attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 18% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 55%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 54%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.56. That form edge translated into the three points. UCD (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.