Derry City 3-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Derry City's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derry City at 1.90 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 39% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.34 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.159 / defence 0.720 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.232 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 0.965. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 0.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Derry City's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Derry City games / 71 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 47% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.35. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 47% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Derry City 1.34 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.159 / def 0.720 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.232 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.419 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: Derry City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.86
St Patrick's Athl. xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 November 2023 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City 3 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 47% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derry City's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.32
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.19
0.86
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Derry City and 0.86 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derry City's recent record stands at 35W 23D 13L from 71 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 37W 12D 22L across 71 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.80 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 16W 13D 6L from 35 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 17W 6D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Derry City are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.63 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; St Patrick's Athl. in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 35W 23D 13L in their last 71 games (1.80 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 22L in their last 71 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Derry City's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.74 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Derry City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Derry City's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 37%, St Patrick's Athl. 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Derry City) and 57% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Derry City have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Derry City's recent matches and 54% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Derry City's recent games and 57% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.34 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.86 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.16 / defence 0.72 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.23 / defence 0.81, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 47% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 39%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.80 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.