UCD 0-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this UCD vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to UCD Bowl to face UCD in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 1 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
UCD have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at UCD Bowl, UCD have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dundalk (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for UCD, 1.40 for Dundalk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: UCD 1W, Dundalk 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
UCD — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 45% versus Dundalk 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 47% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.84 xG and Dundalk 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.749 / defence 1.035 | Dundalk attack 0.777 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.231. UCD's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 UCD games / 48 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 30% | Draw 32% | Dundalk 38%. Fair-value odds: UCD 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Dundalk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: UCD 50% | Dundalk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 30% | Draw 32% | Dundalk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG UCD 0.84 / Dundalk 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.749 / def 1.035 | Dundalk attack 0.777 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
UCD xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Dundalk xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Dundalk kick off?
UCD vs Dundalk kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Dundalk?
UCD 0 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is UCD vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Dundalk part of?
UCD vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 30% chance of winning, Dundalk a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both UCD and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Dundalk?
Record (5 meetings): UCD 1W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 2W.
What form are UCD and Dundalk in?
UCD (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.75x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.78x) against UCD's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
30%
3.37
32%
3.08
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
UCD xG
Total xG
1.83
0.99
Dundalk xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 15.9 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are UCD and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for UCD and 0.99 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
UCD's recent record stands at 8W 8D 22L from 38 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 8L across 38 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, UCD have managed 4W 4D 10L from 18 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.39 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Dundalk in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 8W 8D 22L in their last 38 games (0.84 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 18W 12D 8L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.89 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.22 PPG.
Have UCD or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Dundalk in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dundalk won 1-5 on 3 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
UCD
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Dundalk?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2023, when UCD 1-5 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 50%, Dundalk 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (UCD) and 33% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 33%; UCD have failed to score in 44% of games; Dundalk in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of UCD's recent matches and 39% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of UCD's recent games and 33% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Dundalk tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat UCD 0-2 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.84 xG and Dundalk 0.99 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. UCD fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Dundalk outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Dundalk attack 0.78 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 30% | Draw 32% | Dundalk 38%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 47%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dundalk's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. UCD (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.