UCD 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this UCD vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
UCD and Bohemians meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
UCD (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
UCD's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at UCD Bowl this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bohemians, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with Bohemians winning.
It is worth noting that Bohemians have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
UCD — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 45% versus Bohemians 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 47% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.59 xG and Bohemians 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.719 / defence 1.068 | Bohemians attack 1.070 / defence 0.643. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.258. UCD's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.643 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 UCD games / 47 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 15% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 58%. Fair-value odds: UCD 6.67 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — UCD's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates are neutral: UCD 50% | Bohemians 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 15% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 34% | xG UCD 0.59 / Bohemians 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.719 / def 1.068 | Bohemians attack 1.070 / def 0.643 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Bohemians xG
34%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Bohemians kick off?
UCD vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 April 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Bohemians?
UCD 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is UCD vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Bohemians part of?
UCD vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 15% chance of winning, Bohemians a 58% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both UCD and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Bohemians?
Record (5 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 4W.
What form are UCD and Bohemians in?
UCD (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from UCD's attack rating (0.72) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.07x) against UCD's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-2 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
15%
6.51
27%
3.71
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
UCD xG
Total xG
2.03
1.44
Bohemians xG
6.51
15%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
55%
1.81
Win to Nil
4%
27.40
32%
3.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 18.8 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are UCD and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for UCD and 1.44 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Bohemians?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
UCD come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 8D 22L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (13W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
UCD's home form reads 4W 5D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.29 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Bohemians in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 8W 8D 22L in their last 38 games (0.84 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 13W 11D 14L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.89 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Bohemians?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2023, when UCD 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
UCD see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 47%, Bohemians 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (UCD) and 37% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of UCD's games and 63% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is UCD vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of UCD's recent games and 37% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Bohemians tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
UCD and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD and Bohemians finished level at 1-1 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.59 xG and Bohemians 1.44 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.72 / defence 1.07 against Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 0.64, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 15% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 58%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 47%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.