Bohemians 3-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Drogheda United meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bohemians, 1.10 for Drogheda United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Drogheda United half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 64% versus Drogheda United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 53% | Drogheda United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.54 xG and Drogheda United 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.023 / defence 1.060 | Drogheda United attack 0.847 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 0.899. Data: 39 Bohemians games / 39 Drogheda United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 53% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 18%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Drogheda United 5.56. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 50% | Drogheda United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 53% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Bohemians 1.54 / Drogheda United 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.023 / def 1.060 | Drogheda United attack 0.847 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.584 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Drogheda United xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Drogheda United kick off?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Bohemians 3 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Bohemians vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Drogheda United part of?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 53% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Drogheda United's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.85x) against Bohemians's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.47
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.35
0.81
Drogheda United xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
4%
26.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.81 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 20D 26L from 72 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Drogheda United, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 32L across 72 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Bohemians against 1.14 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 16W 9D 11L from 36 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Drogheda United's away record stands at 7W 9D 20L across 36 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 21W 19D 32L in their last 72 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Drogheda United away?
Bohemians's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.58 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
2
Draws
4
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Drogheda United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 64%, Drogheda United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bohemians) and 50% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Drogheda United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Drogheda United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians's games and 50% of Drogheda United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Bohemians's matches and 50% of Drogheda United's.
Do Bohemians and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Drogheda United 3-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.54 xG and Drogheda United 0.81 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Drogheda United attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 53% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 18%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 53%, Drogheda United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.36 PPG, Drogheda United 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.