🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford finished level at 2-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 xG and Waterford 0.99 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.27 / defence 0.90 against Waterford attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 55% | Draw 24% | Waterford 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 57%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights