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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Sligo Rovers 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 4-3 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.58 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.75 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 18%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights