St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 33 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Sligo Rovers to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 October 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sligo Rovers stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 48% versus Sligo Rovers 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 55% | Sligo Rovers 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.99 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.142 / defence 0.947 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.893 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 0.993. Data: 69 St Patrick's Athl. games / 69 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 64% | Draw 22% | Sligo Rovers 14%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Sligo Rovers 7.14. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Sligo Rovers 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 64% | Draw 22% | Sligo Rovers 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.99 / Sligo Rovers 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.142 / def 0.947 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.893 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.491 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Sligo Rovers xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 23 October 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 64% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.51
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.83
0.84
Sligo Rovers xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
2%
50.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.84 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 36W 12D 21L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 24W 16D 29L from 69 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sligo Rovers.
Venue Form
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.85 PPG from 34 outings (19W 6D 9L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 8W 8D 18L from 34 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.20 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 12D 21L in their last 69 games (1.74 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 16D 29L in their last 69 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Sligo Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.85 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.94 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
St Patrick's Athl.
1
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 7, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 41%, Sligo Rovers 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 56% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 59% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 56% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Sligo Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.99 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.84 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sligo Rovers landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 64% | Draw 22% | Sligo Rovers 14%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 55%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.