Cork City 0-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Shamrock Rovers travel to Turner's Cross to take on Cork City. The game is scheduled for Monday 30 October 2023, 16:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Cork City have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cork City's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Turner's Cross this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cork City are significantly better at Turner's Cross than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cork City have won 1, Shamrock Rovers 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cork City trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shamrock Rovers trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 47% versus Shamrock Rovers 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 53% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 0.67 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.743 / defence 1.092 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.105 / defence 0.632. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 0.983. Cork City's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.632 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Cork City games / 70 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 20% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 48%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Shamrock Rovers 2.08. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cork City's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cork City 40% | Shamrock Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Monday 30 Oct 2023, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 20% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Cork City 0.67 / Shamrock Rovers 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.743 / def 1.092 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.105 / def 0.632 | league avg home 1.431 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Shamrock Rovers xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 16:45 on Monday 30 October 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Cork City 0 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 20% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cork City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (3 meetings): Cork City 1W | Draws 1 | Shamrock Rovers 1W.
What form are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Cork City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cork City's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
20%
4.94
32%
3.12
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Cork City xG
Total xG
1.86
1.19
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
6%
16.18
24%
4.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 18.5 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Cork City and 1.19 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cork City's recent record stands at 8W 6D 20L from 34 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 4L across 34 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cork City have managed 6W 3D 8L from 17 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 7W 8D 2L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cork City are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.85 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 8W 6D 20L in their last 34 games (0.88 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 19W 11D 4L in their last 34 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.24 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Cork City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cork City have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cork City's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cork City
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 47%, Shamrock Rovers 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Cork City and 24% for Shamrock Rovers.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 59%; Shamrock Rovers in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cork City's recent matches and 29% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cork City's recent games and 24% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 41% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cork City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 33, as Cork City and Shamrock Rovers drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 0.67 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.19 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 0.63, drawn from 34/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 20% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 48%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 53%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.