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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG and Shelbourne 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.18 / defence 0.91 against Shelbourne attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 24%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Shelbourne 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights