St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 25 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 June 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.
Shelbourne — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shelbourne have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for St Patrick's Athl., 3 for Shelbourne and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Shelbourne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shelbourne 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG and Shelbourne 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.183 / defence 0.913 | Shelbourne attack 0.917 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.114. Data: 56 St Patrick's Athl. games / 56 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 24%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Shelbourne 4.17. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Shelbourne lead the H2H ledger, but St Patrick's Athl. carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Shelbourne 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 16 Jun 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 / Shelbourne 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.183 / def 0.913 | Shelbourne attack 0.917 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Shelbourne xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 16 June 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 49% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Record (5 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 1W | Draws 1 | Shelbourne 3W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.75
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
Shelbourne xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
6%
17.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.93 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 36W 13D 23L from 72 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 32W 27D 13L across 72 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.68 PPG, Shelbourne on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 21W 5D 10L from 36 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 14W 14D 8L across 36 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 32W 27D 13L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shelbourne away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.89 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.56 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shelbourne have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Shelbourne 1-2 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Shelbourne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 25% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Shelbourne in 44%; Shelbourne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 39% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 25% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG and Shelbourne 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.18 / defence 0.91 against Shelbourne attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 24%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Shelbourne 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.