🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at St Patrick's Athl.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United finished level at 0-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 xG and Drogheda United 1.09 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Drogheda United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.28 / defence 0.99 against Drogheda United attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 24%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights