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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St Patrick's Athl. face Drogheda United.

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Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Drogheda United at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 June 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 7W 1D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.

Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Drogheda United's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Drogheda United 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Drogheda United trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Drogheda United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Drogheda United 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 xG and Drogheda United 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.279 / defence 0.989 | Drogheda United attack 0.976 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.131. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 St Patrick's Athl. games / 55 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 24%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Drogheda United 4.17. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Drogheda United 70% BTTS from recent games.

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