St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 7W 1D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St Patrick's Athl. register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Bohemians in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 1, Bohemians 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2024, ended 3–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bohemians trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.43 xG and Bohemians 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.234 / defence 0.990 | Bohemians attack 1.081 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.050. Data: 41 St Patrick's Athl. games / 41 Bohemians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 28%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Bohemians 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.43 / Bohemians 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.234 / def 0.990 | Bohemians attack 1.081 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Bohemians xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. 3 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
Record (3 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 1W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.23) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.47
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.55
1.12
Bohemians xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.12 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 36W 13D 23L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.39 PPG from 72 outings (26W 22D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.68 PPG, Bohemians on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 21W 5D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.33 points per game from 36 outings (12W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.28 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 22D 24L in their last 72 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Bohemians away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.89 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.33 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
5
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Bohemians 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 33% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bohemians in 36%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 44% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 33% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Bohemians 3-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.43 xG and Bohemians 1.12 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.23 / defence 0.99 against Bohemians attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 28%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Bohemians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.