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Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.02 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 32% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 51%, St Patrick's Athl. 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.24 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights