🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Showgrounds to take on Sligo Rovers. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 September 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Sligo Rovers have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sligo Rovers 1.60 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour St Patrick's Athl., who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Sligo Rovers.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 45% versus St Patrick's Athl. 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 51% | St Patrick's Athl. 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.02 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.831 / defence 1.007 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.014 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.039. Data: 67 Sligo Rovers games / 67 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 32% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights