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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sligo Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers 0-2 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.18 xG and Shelbourne 1.10 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Shelbourne outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Shelbourne attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 34%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 52%, Shelbourne 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shelbourne's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.23 PPG, Shelbourne 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights