Sligo Rovers 0-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Sligo Rovers (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) — Sligo Rovers have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Shamrock Rovers in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 50% versus Shamrock Rovers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | Shamrock Rovers 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sligo Rovers surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Shamrock Rovers have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.89 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.737 / defence 0.819 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.979 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.196. Sligo Rovers's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 40 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 32% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 36%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.14 | Draw 3.09 | Shamrock Rovers 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 10% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Sligo Rovers 40 games, Shamrock Rovers 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 5 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 32% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Sligo Rovers 0.89 / Shamrock Rovers 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.737 / def 0.819 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.979 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Shamrock Rovers xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 5) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 32% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.74x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (0.98x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 40 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
32%
3.14
32%
3.09
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.84
0.96
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.96 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 24W 17D 31L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 44W 19D 9L from 72 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sligo Rovers.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 36 home games (16W 9D 11L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 14D 7L from their last 36 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.78 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 games (1.24 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 44W 19D 9L in their last 72 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.58 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won Shamrock Rovers 4-0 Sligo Rovers on 13 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 4, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Shamrock Rovers 4-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 42%, Shamrock Rovers 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sligo Rovers) and 31% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 50%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 31% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 47% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sligo Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 5, as Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.89 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.96 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.74 / defence 0.82 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 32% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 36%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Shamrock Rovers 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.