Derry City 3-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host Waterford at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Derry City — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derry City have posted 6W 4D 0L at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derry City at 1.90 PPG versus Waterford's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.82 xG and Waterford 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.201 / defence 0.849 | Waterford attack 1.133 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.297. Data: 40 Derry City games / 4 Waterford games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Derry City 51% | Draw 23% | Waterford 26%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Waterford 3.85. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 51% | Draw 23% | Waterford 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Derry City 1.82 / Waterford 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.201 / def 0.849 | Waterford attack 1.133 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Derry City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Waterford xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Waterford kick off?
Derry City vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 March 2024 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Derry City 3 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Derry City vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Waterford part of?
Derry City vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 51% chance of winning, Waterford a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Derry City and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Waterford in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derry City's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.36
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Derry City xG
Total xG
3.07
1.25
Waterford xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
4%
23.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Derry City and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Derry City and 1.25 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Derry City have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Derry City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waterford's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Derry City's scoring rate against Waterford's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Waterford in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Derry City or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Waterford in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Derry City
1
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 6, Waterford have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Waterford?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Derry City's recent matches and 50% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Waterford 3-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.82 xG and Waterford 1.25 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waterford landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against Waterford attack 1.13 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 51% | Draw 23% | Waterford 26%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 50%, Waterford 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Derry City scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Waterford managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.