Sligo Rovers 3-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sligo Rovers face Finn Harps.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sligo Rovers host Finn Harps at The Showgrounds in Premier Division (matchday 6). Kick-off is Monday 14 March 2022 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sligo Rovers stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sligo Rovers's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Finn Harps's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sligo Rovers at 1.20 PPG versus Finn Harps's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Finn Harps 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2021, ended Sligo Rovers 2–2 Finn Harps — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sligo Rovers in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 42% versus Finn Harps 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 31% | Finn Harps 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.22 xG and Finn Harps 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.877 / defence 0.818 | Finn Harps attack 0.822 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.032. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 40 games and Finn Harps's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 48% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 21%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.07 | Draw 3.22 | Finn Harps 4.86. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sligo Rovers at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 40% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Sligo Rovers 40 games, Finn Harps 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 6 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Monday 14 March 2022 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 48% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Sligo Rovers 1.22 / Finn Harps 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.877 / def 0.818 | Finn Harps attack 0.822 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Finn Harps xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 14 March 2022 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Sligo Rovers 3 - 1 Finn Harps.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 6) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 48% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (0.88) and Finn Harps's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 40 games and Finn Harps's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.22
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.92
0.69
Finn Harps xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.69 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 16W 9D 11L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Finn Harps's form line: 11W 11D 14L from 36 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sligo Rovers on 1.58 PPG, Finn Harps on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 18 home games (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Finn Harps have gone 6W 5D 7L from their last 18 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps in 61%.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Finn Harps (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Finn Harps away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.61 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 19 August 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Jun 2022, when Sligo Rovers won Sligo Rovers 3-0 Finn Harps.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 5, Finn Harps have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 August 2022: Finn Harps 3-2 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 44%, Finn Harps 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Sligo Rovers) and 67% (Finn Harps).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Finn Harps in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 61% of Finn Harps's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 67% of Finn Harps's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 72% of Finn Harps's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Finn Harps 3-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.22 xG and Finn Harps 0.69 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sligo Rovers beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Finn Harps attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 48% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 21%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 31%, Finn Harps 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.58 PPG, Finn Harps 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Finn Harps (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.