Dundalk 0-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 14 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Dundalk, 2.20 for Shamrock Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 64% versus Shamrock Rovers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.56 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.293 / defence 0.993 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.943 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.032. Dundalk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Dundalk games / 41 Shamrock Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 51% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 23%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 4.35. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 60% | Shamrock Rovers 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 51% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Dundalk 1.56 / Shamrock Rovers 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.293 / def 0.993 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.943 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Shamrock Rovers xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 14 March 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Dundalk 0 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 51% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.29) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (0.94x) against Dundalk's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.79
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.53
0.97
Shamrock Rovers xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
5%
20.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.97 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 13W 9D 14L from 36 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 24W 6D 6L across 36 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 9W 2D 7L from 18 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 12W 1D 5L across 18 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.64 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.61 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 67%, Shamrock Rovers 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dundalk's games and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dundalk's recent games and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dundalk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 0-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.56 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.97 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dundalk fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.29 / defence 0.99 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 51% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 23%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.