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Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derry City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers beat Derry City 2-0 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.99 xG and Derry City 1.18 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sligo Rovers beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Derry City attack 1.00 / defence 0.79, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 31% | Draw 29% | Derry City 40%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 52%, Derry City 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Derry City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights