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Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Sligo Rovers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.62 xG and Derry City 1.04 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.13 / defence 1.18 against Derry City attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 50% | Draw 27% | Derry City 23%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Derry City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights