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Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waterford beat Shelbourne 0-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.48 xG and Waterford 1.02 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Waterford attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Waterford 25%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 32%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Waterford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights