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Stalemate at Shelbourne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 36, as Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.24 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.88 / defence 0.82, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 43% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 38%, St Patrick's Athl. 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.70 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights