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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sligo Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers 3-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.42 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.05 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 28%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights