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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Sligo Rovers 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers 3-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.42 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.06 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.08 / defence 1.22, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 45% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 28%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights