Shelbourne 2-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shelbourne at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 2). Kick-off: Monday 9 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Shelbourne's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Shelbourne's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Shelbourne's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Shamrock Rovers in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Oct 2025, ended Shelbourne 1–0 Shamrock Rovers — a Shelbourne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 38% | Shamrock Rovers 50%). Note also that Shamrock Rovers surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Shelbourne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.69 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.089 / defence 1.243 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.122 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.083. Shelbourne's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 40 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 42% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 34%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.41 | Draw 4.04 | Shamrock Rovers 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 60% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Shelbourne 40 games, Shamrock Rovers 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 2 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 9 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 42% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Shelbourne 1.69 / Shamrock Rovers 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.089 / def 1.243 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.122 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Shamrock Rovers xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 9 March 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Shelbourne 2 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 2) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 42% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (1.09) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.12x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 40 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
42%
2.41
25%
4.04
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
3.20
1.51
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
6%
16.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.51 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 32W 26D 14L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 36W 19D 17L from 72 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.76 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 36 home games (17W 12D 7L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 10D 11L from their last 36 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 games (1.69 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.75 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Shamrock Rovers 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 56%, Shamrock Rovers 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 50% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shelbourne's games and 64% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 61% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 2-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.69 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.51 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.09 / defence 1.24 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.12 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 42% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 34%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 38%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.69 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.