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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shelbourne and Galway United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 11, as Shelbourne and Galway United drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.04 xG and Galway United 1.12 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Galway United outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.95 / defence 0.82 against Galway United attack 1.09 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 33% | Draw 30% | Galway United 37%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Galway United 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.75 PPG, Galway United 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Galway United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights