Shelbourne 3-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Finn Harps encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Finn Harps travel to Tolka Park to take on Shelbourne. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 July 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shelbourne stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Finn Harps have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shelbourne, 2 for Finn Harps and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Finn Harps winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 43% versus Finn Harps 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 43% | Finn Harps 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.32 xG and Finn Harps 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.738 / defence 1.155 | Finn Harps attack 0.968 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.084. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Shelbourne games / 57 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 39% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 34%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Finn Harps 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 40% | Finn Harps 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 8 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 39% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Shelbourne 1.32 / Finn Harps 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.738 / def 1.155 | Finn Harps attack 0.968 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Finn Harps xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Finn Harps kick off?
Shelbourne vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 July 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Shelbourne 3 - 1 Finn Harps.
Where is Shelbourne vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Finn Harps part of?
Shelbourne vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 39% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shelbourne and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Finn Harps?
Record (2 meetings): Shelbourne 0W | Draws 0 | Finn Harps 2W.
What form are Shelbourne and Finn Harps in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Finn Harps (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.74
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.53
1.21
Finn Harps xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.21 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shelbourne come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 4D 10L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Finn Harps sit at 0.57 PPG from 21 outings (2W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shelbourne's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Finn Harps have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shelbourne are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 0.81 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Finn Harps
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 2W 6D 13L in their last 21 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Finn Harps away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.10 PPG; Finn Harps away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Finn Harps won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shelbourne's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shelbourne
1
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Finn Harps?
From 4 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 1, Finn Harps have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2022, when Finn Harps 1-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Finn Harps?
Finn Harps have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 40%, Finn Harps 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Shelbourne and 80% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 40% of games; Finn Harps in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Finn Harps?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 50% of Finn Harps's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Shelbourne's matches and 80% of Finn Harps's.
Do Shelbourne and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Finn Harps 3-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.32 xG and Finn Harps 1.21 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.74 / defence 1.16 against Finn Harps attack 0.97 / defence 1.36, drawn from 21/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 39% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 34%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 43%, Finn Harps 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Finn Harps's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Finn Harps (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.