UCD 1-3 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this UCD vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
UCD and Bohemians meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 7 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
UCD (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for UCD, so this record blends games from this season and last.
UCD's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at UCD Bowl this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bohemians arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for UCD, 1 for Bohemians and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Bohemians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
UCD — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 41% versus Bohemians 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 50% | Bohemians 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.83 xG and Bohemians 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.624 / defence 1.252 | Bohemians attack 0.975 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.057. UCD's attack strength of 0.624 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 UCD games / 57 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 24% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 47%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 2.13. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: UCD 40% | Bohemians 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 24% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG UCD 0.83 / Bohemians 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.624 / def 1.252 | Bohemians attack 0.975 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bohemians xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Bohemians kick off?
UCD vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 7 July 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Bohemians?
UCD 1 - 3 Bohemians.
Where is UCD vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Bohemians part of?
UCD vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 24% chance of winning, Bohemians a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both UCD and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Bohemians?
Record (2 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are UCD and Bohemians in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from UCD's attack rating (0.62) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.97x) against UCD's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 21/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
24%
4.16
29%
3.48
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
UCD xG
Total xG
2.12
1.29
Bohemians xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 15.4 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are UCD and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for UCD and 1.29 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
UCD come into this having played 22 games, going 2W 6D 14L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for UCD is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (6W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
UCD's home form reads 0W 5D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Bohemians in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 2W 6D 14L in their last 22 games (0.55 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 6W 9D 7L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.50 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Bohemians?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2023, when UCD 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
UCD tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 40%, Bohemians 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for UCD and 30% for Bohemians.
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 60% of games; Bohemians in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of UCD's recent matches and 60% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of UCD's recent games and 30% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Bohemians tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat UCD 1-3 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.83 xG and Bohemians 1.29 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.62 / defence 1.25 against Bohemians attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 21/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 24% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 47%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 50%, Bohemians 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win. UCD (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.