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Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Shelbourne 0-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.20 xG and Drogheda United 0.90 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 0.77, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 41% | Draw 33% | Drogheda United 26%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Drogheda United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Drogheda United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights