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Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Shelbourne 0-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.24 xG and Derry City 1.05 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Derry City attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 40% | Draw 28% | Derry City 31%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.71 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights