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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Derry City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Derry City 3-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.16 xG and Derry City 0.96 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Derry City attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 39% | Draw 33% | Derry City 28%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.71 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights