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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cork City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Cork City 3-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.78 xG and Cork City 1.10 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Cork City attack 1.00 / defence 1.51, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 53% | Draw 23% | Cork City 23%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Cork City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Cork City's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.68. Form held, and they took the win. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights