🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shelbourne and Cork City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne and Cork City finished level at 1-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.68 xG and Cork City 0.89 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Cork City attack 0.84 / defence 1.27, drawn from 41/4 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 55% | Draw 26% | Cork City 19%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 32%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cork City (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights