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Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over St Patrick's Athl..

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 0.95 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.81 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 38% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.76 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights