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Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Bohemians 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Bohemians 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.42 xG and Bohemians 0.80 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.25 / defence 0.79 against Bohemians attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 20%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, Bohemians 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Bohemians's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights