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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians encounter.

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Analysis

Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 26 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium.

Bohemians (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Bohemians have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Bohemians hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2025, ended 0–2 with Bohemians winning.

It is worth noting that Bohemians have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Bohemians 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Bohemians 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.42 xG and Bohemians 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.254 / defence 0.794 | Bohemians attack 0.972 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.035. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Shamrock Rovers games / 67 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 20%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 5.00. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Bohemians lead the H2H ledger, but Shamrock Rovers carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.

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