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Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Shamrock Rovers 2-3 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.53 xG and Bohemians 0.69 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 0.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.18 / defence 0.70 against Bohemians attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 57% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 17%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 47%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Bohemians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights